Transmissions: Sizing up early 2028 Dem presidential prospects

It feels premature, in the summer of 2025, to see so much jockeying for position by Democratic politicians for the presidential run in 2028. To be honest, we have no idea what our country might look like in three and a half years, given the transformation in just the last six months. We honestly don’t even know if there will be elections all these years from now.

Nevertheless, we are seeing the left still analyzing the 2024 loss, and some potential Democratic candidates are already starting to put their feelers out.

The front-running name seems to be California Governor Gavin Newsom, who has clearly had his eye on the Oval Office for what seems like decades. His sparring with President Donald Trump from the safety of social media has garnered him a lot of positive attention, even as his podcast garners a different type of notoriety thanks to a string of conservative guests – and regular discussions about transgender issues. Recent chats with the likes of right-wing provocateur Charlie Kirk make it clear that – in spite of past triumphs like his push for same-sex marriage in California when he was mayor of San Francisco in 2004 – he’s no friend to the transgender community.

The federal government, under Trump, has very much taken notice of this, and has attempted to weaponize it against the state.

Even as California moves to become the only state to bar staff members at schools from notifying parents about any student's change to their gender identity, which Newsom signed into law, the governor has recently sounded far less sure about the issue.

Appearing on the “Shawn Ryan Show” podcast last week, Newsom again cast doubt on trans participation in sports, and seemed far less schooled on trans issues than one might expect. "The trans issue for me is so novel," said Newsom. "I'm trying to understand as much as anyone else the whole 'pronoun' thing."

This is fascinating, given that Newsom's signature is on my wall, on a proclamation he signed for Transgender Day of Remembrance 20 years ago. I find myself questioning exactly how "novel" this is to him really, and how much of this is what he thinks he needs to say to stay in power.

Rahm Emanuel, the former Chicago mayor and White House chief of staff under former President Barack Obama, is also showing signs of a budding presidential candidacy, as he moves into gigs with the Washington Post and CNN, and starts road testing his stump speech to increase his visibility.

In his remarks at the Democracy Forward conference, Emanuel is clearly going after the supposed ties between the Democratic Party and trans issues, stating, "I am done with the discussion of locker rooms, I am done with the discussion of bathrooms, and we better start having a conversation about the classroom," as he discussed school performance.

He punched this line up a bit in a Washington Post interview, saying that he wishes Democrats were less concerned with "a child’s right to pick his pronouns” and more about “children who do not know what a pronoun is." It's a good hook, and in line with many of his contemporaries such as Newsom.

It's also wrong.

 
These are not the issues Democrats are talking about. I think it's clear that the group that got to talk about transgender issues the most in the 2024 election cycle was not the trans community, not the larger LGBTQ movement, and not Democratic politicians. It was the Republican Party. Silence from Democratic candidates and other leaders only served to harm the left.

In a Gallup poll conducted September 16-28, 2024, transgender issues were viewed by less than a majority of voters as extremely or very important to their presidential vote choice, and dead last among a list of concerns. As noted by trans journalist Erin Reed, this was largely the same as previous polls from 2022 and 2023, showing that the over $150 million spent by GOP forces on anti-transgender ads this last election cycle did not move the needle.

Additionally, a poll by the Human Rights Campaign and GQR Research from October 31-November 5, 2024 showed that 4% of voters named policies attacking trans people as an important issue in deciding who they were supporting for president.

So, what did matter to voters, if it wasn't transgender issues?

A poll released this month by Lake Research made it clear: voters want a candidate who will fight corporate greed, lower costs, and lead on the economy. They want a leader who heads left, rather than ones – like Newsom or Emanuel – who want to tack to the center.

This was the same message in the polls I mentioned above. It's not pronouns, it's not trans people in sports, it's none of this that hurt the Democrats in 2024 – nor is turning their back to it going to help them in the future. People want someone who will lead.

I want to take a moment and talk about a more recent political race, that of New York Democratic mayoral candidate Zohran Mamdani.

Mamdani, a democratic socialist, was painted as a trans rights radical by the New York Post the day before the June 24 Democratic primary in New York City. Meanwhile, Mamdani spoke with trans actor Laverne Cox about trans rights that same day on Instagram. He has since made Pride appearances and done interviews within our community.

Rather than shying away, he has opted to embrace us.

Now I'm not saying I want Mamdani as the 2028 Democratic presidential nominee – as a naturalized citizen he’s not eligible.

But I do want a Democratic Party that can get beyond trying to blame transgender people and actually start leading like it has something to say beyond parroting "Republican lite" messaging.

Find us a candidate who wishes to lead.

Gwen Smith isn't planning on voting for Emanuel or Newsom. You'll find her at www.gwensmith.com .